Ukraine's Zelensky holds first war phone call with China's Xi

Ukraine's new president Volodymyr Zelensky talked to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for the first time on Tuesday. Zelensky's surprise victory in February raised hopes in Beijing that it could secure a stronger foothold in the country it regards as its own backyard.

The two heads of state discussed pressing issues including the crisis in the Azov Sea and the security situation in the Donbas. According to Zelensky, the two sides also discussed ways to foster closer economic ties.

The Azov Sea Crisis

The first point of discussion was Ukraine's struggle with China over the disputed territory of the Azov Sea. This week, Ukraine will host the first-ever China-Ukraine forum on sustainable development, with the aim of encouraging Chinese businesses to enter the lucrative Ukrainian market. Since 2014, when conflict broke out in the Donbas, the number of ships and submarines passing through the Sea of Azov has more than doubled to over 60 vessels per day. The uptick has raised fears of a serious security breach in the area. Last year, five Ukrainian naval vessels were captured by Russia, which sent them on a lengthy rehabilitation process.

The first indication that Xi was interested in pursuing a more active role in the dispute came in a telephone call he made to then-president Petro Poroshenko in August. At the time, Poroshenko was in the middle of crisis negotiations with Russia over the terms of its infamous annexation of Crimea. With the backing of thousands of soldiers and multiple battalions of militants, Russian troops had surrounded and blocked the Ukrainian capital, preventing food and medicine from getting in. Poroshenko thought his engagement with Russia would pay dividends, and in October, he announced that his country would temporarily open up a dialogue with Moscow.

The deal fell through when, a month later, Russian forces invaded the Donbas and fomented a war that has seen territory, city, and livelihoods become devastated. It has also cast a dark shadow over the country's democratic future.

After the peace deal fell through, Poroshenko called off high-level contacts with Russia. Since then, he has turned his attention toward China, which, unlike Russia, does not directly threaten Ukraine. Moreover, Ukraine has a coast, not a border with Russia, which means it does not have to worry about being cut off from the rest of the world. Additionally, with the U.S. now recognizing the country's role in the global financial crisis of 2008, Poroshenko is keen to establish a stronger economic partnership with the world's second-largest economy. Finally, as a former military man, Poroshenko is familiar with how to handle powerful nations like Russia.

Zelensky's decisive win in the presidential election last month gave him an immediate mandate to take a hard line with Russia. In a phone call on Monday, the newly elected Ukrainian leader pledged to strengthen Ukraine's military in response to what he called Russia's continued aggression. "We will not surrender a single inch of our territorial unity. We will not recognize any action by Russia that, in any way, severs us from the Ukrainian state," Zelensky said in a statement before leaving for Beijing.

Zelensky's tough talk on the issue garnered support from the United States, which, along with the European Union, have imposed tough sanctions on Russia in response to its interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and its aggression toward Ukraine and other former Soviet states. In addition to sanctions, the U.S. and EU have halted almost all forms of economic cooperation with Russia.

The Security Situation In The Donbas

The two leaders also discussed Ukraine's beleaguered eastern provinces, which were the scene of conflict during the country's independence struggle. Today, around 350,000 people in the Donbas are still without access to electricity, while the region suffers from a severe water shortage. Moreover, last year was the deadliest year for civilians in the region since the beginning of the conflict. Nearly 5,000 people were killed and over 12,500 wounded.

There is little doubt that the security situation in the Donbas poses a serious threat to Ukraine's national security. About 45,000 Russian soldiers are stationed in the area, along with hundreds of military vehicles and other equipment. In July 2019, the two countries signed an agreement to normalize the trade relationship between them, including in the area of defense. The deal will see Russia provide Ukraine with weapons, including submarines, tanks, and jets, in exchange for a free trade zone in the area.

Closer Economic Ties

The issue that received the most attention from Chinese state media was Ukraine's plan to create a free trade zone with the country. In a joint statement before the two leaders' first face-to-face encounter, China confirmed that it was studying the proposal with interest. "We would like to see the economic integration, including trade prospects, between our two countries develop smoothly and in a win-win manner," said Xi. "We always cherish friendship and cooperative relations with Ukraine, and hope to work with it to bring about greater development for the two countries and people."

Even before the current wave of instability in Ukraine, Chinese exporters had been looking for ways to get around the country's strict regulations. For years, China has suffered from a lack of market access, with most countries, including the United States and the European Union, applying import tariffs on goods manufactured in the country. To get around the restrictions, Chinese businesses have used special trade zones, where local and international businesses can operate with reduced customs duties. While it is too early to tell, the creation of a free trade zone in Ukraine could provide important new opportunities for Chinese firms.