India will surpass China as world's most populous country by mid-year, UN says

India will surpass China as world's most populous country by mid-year

For the past several years, the world has been fixated on the devastating effects of the coronavirus pandemic. But as life slowly begins to resemble pre-pandemic days, a new era of development is about to dawn, and it will be fueled by, among other things, the resurgence of pent-up demand for consumer goods and the increased affordability of air travel.

Since the start of this year, airlines have increased flight frequencies, and governments have eased some of the restrictions that had been placed on travel and economic activity. As a result, many believe we are on the road to recovery, and the world's greatest economies are gearing up for a new era of expansion, led in no small part by India.

In 2021, India will surpass China as the world's most populous country, according to government data. The most recently available figures show that there were approximately 1.3 billion more residents living in 108.8 million fewer households in the country in 2021.

While the government has taken important steps to contain the spread of the coronavirus, it has also imposed a stringent lockdown, shutting down economic activity and limiting the availability of essential services, including healthcare. These factors will contribute to the growing pains that India and other developing countries are likely to experience as they develop new industries and attempt to rebuild their economies.

The pandemic presented numerous challenges to the world's fifth-largest economy. In the wake of the virus, India lost about 5% of its GDP, with experts predicting that it would take years to recover from the blow. But while the effects of the pandemic rippled throughout the country, the worst hit areas were those which were already most vulnerable, such as the country's densely populated urban centers and its poorest regions. This indicates that the pandemic had the potential to deepen India's divisions, creating a more unequal society, and putting pressure on its already limited resources.

As nations begin to emerge from the pandemic, we are likely to see a more equitable distribution of wealth, with the most recent figures from the World Bank showing that while India's rich enjoy an extraordinary degree of affluence, a large chunk of the population still exists in abject poverty. This is likely to be exacerbated by the ongoing impact of the pandemic, as workers who have lost their jobs or had their wages slashed struggle to make ends meet. Many, however, will benefit from the government's massive relief packages, which have been put in place to soften the blow of the pandemic on India's most vulnerable sectors, including the poor and the marginalized.

How did the pandemic affect India?

The effects of the coronavirus pandemic in India were numerous and profound. Experts have predicted that about 10% of the world's largest economy could be lost due to the pandemic, which would be the worst economic disaster in recent history. The numbers are still preliminary, but already it's clear that India's GDP will shrink by about 5% in 2021.

In late March 2021, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a "21-day lockdown," restricting the movement of people and closing down all but essential businesses, in order to try and stop the spread of the virus. For the most part, people followed the government's directives and stayed at home, limiting the number of people who were infected, and allowing healthcare resources to be focused on treating those who were already sick.

The government also imposed a hefty economic stimulus package aimed at cushioning the effects of the pandemic. About $40 billion was allocated for healthcare, education, and nutrition programs in India, which will provide relief to about 100 million people. But the package was only made available to those who were already extremely disadvantaged, with the World Bank estimating that only 20% of the people who needed the money got it.

Why did India need to take such drastic measures?

While the numbers are still preliminary, it's clear that India is the world's fifth-largest economy, and it wasn't just about beating China's record. The country is home to about 1.3 billion people, and it's now facing the daunting task of trying to bring back the billions of dollars worth of economic activity that it had lost to save humanity from the ravages of COVID-19. India's prime minister has projected that the country could lose as much as 10% of its GDP, with about $40 billion needed just to get back to pre-pandemic levels of economic activity.

The numbers are truly staggering. More than 100 million people in India were directly impacted by the pandemic. About 20% of the country's total workforce had to be kept unemployed, as businesses had to close down due to lack of customers. Those who could find work were often paid far lower wages as a result of the pandemic, putting further pressure on the country's income levels. About 20 million students had to drop out of school as a result of the pandemic. This is likely to create a pool of unemployed graduates and potentially worsen India's unemployment rate.

To make matters worse, less than half of India's population had access to clean drinking water, and only about 10% had access to a reliable electricity supply. The country was also severely lacking in the medical supplies and equipment needed to treat those who were infected with COVID-19, with only about 300,000 people having access to intensive care beds. About one in 10 people in India did not have access to a regular room in a hospital, making them extremely vulnerable to the coronavirus.

The Indian government stepped up and took action, with about 150 million doses of antiviral medication being distributed to poorer regions of the country, including the Northeast. These are usually stockpiled by public health experts, in case of a pandemic.

Since the start of this year, about 1.7 million Indians have died from the effects of the pandemic, which has been caused by COVID-19. Experts predict that India's mortality rate could be as high as 2.3%, which would make it the deadliest pandemic in recorded history. If these predictions come true and India loses about 10% of its population due to the pandemic, then it will have suffered the worst human tragedy since the wars of colonization.

What is the government doing to address the problems?

The Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has taken significant action to prepare for, and limit, the spread of COVID-19. About 80 million Indians live in self-quarantine, which is about 20x the number in the U.S., as a result of the lockdown. The government has also opened more than 17 million dormitories and apartments across the country as part of its ‘New India' initiative, to help those who have lost their jobs and livelihoods as a result of the pandemic.

The Modi government has also taken the lead in developing a COVID-19 vaccine, with about a dozen trials scheduled to begin this year, and millions upon millions of dollars being invested in the research. Experts predict that a vaccine could be available in about a year, which will make a critical difference in stemming the tide of this pandemic. About a third of India's GDP is now spent on healthcare, with experts estimating that about $40 billion will be needed to get back to normal.

What does the future hold for India?

COVID-19 presented one of the greatest challenges to the Indian government and people in recent history. While the country's most vulnerable regions have suffered immensely due to the pandemic, especially in the wake of the government's severe restrictions, it has also seen a resurgence of the disease, with more people, especially in the younger age groups, coming down with it. This could be due to a combination of factors, including individuals' increased willingness to behave unhealthily in the name of social distance and the fact that those who were most affected live in poverty and are more often than not socially isolated, putting them at greater risk of getting infected. With about 2.3 million of its people having died from the pandemic as of April 2021, India will never be the same. While the effects of the pandemic were most devastating in the country's poorest regions, it will also put additional pressure on its already limited resources, especially in the wake of the country's growing economy.